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Northamptonshire Analysis
The authority on Northamptonshire statistics


  • 22 March 2018
    Revised ONS Population Estimates
    Today the Office for National Statistics released revised Mid-Year Estimates (MYEs) for the years 2012 to 2016 inclusive. These are available at borough/district geography and above.

    I have amended the Key Facts stat on the Northamptonshire Analysis Home Page, however, the revised MYEs are NOT yet loaded to the dataviews within the Population and Census theme. The dataviews still show the original mid year estimates. The revised estimates will be uploaded after Easter (sorry for the delay, annual leave beckons!).

    Until then, please see the ONS Revised 2012-2016 Mid Year Estimates : Northamptonshire Summary spreadsheet where I have downloaded the county's data from the ONS Population Estimates Revision Tool. This looks at the difference between the revised ONS MYEs and the original figures released for those years for the county and the boroughs/districts. The revised estimates for each year for the county and the seven boroughs/districts are also available in the spreadsheet.

    The increases and reductions in the total population are as follows :
    Northamptonshire : reduction : -676 (-0.1%). Total population now stands at 732,452 persons.
    Corby : increase : 108 persons (0.2%)
    Daventry : reduction : -218 persons (-0.3%)
    East Northamptonshire : increase : 383 persons (0.4%)
    Kettering : reduction : -55 persons (-0.1%)
    Northampton : reduction : -975 persons (-0.4%)
    South Northamptonshire : reduction : -95 persons (-0.1%)
    Wellingborough : increase : 176 persons (0.2%).

    What is evident from the detailed figures is that the ONS have been underestimating both international emigration and to a lesser extent international immigration in the county during 2015 and 2016, which is something we expressed concern about following analysis of the last Local Area Migration Suite against the National Insurance Number allocations.

    If you need the ONS's Methodology Guide or their QMI sheet they are available here.
  • 21 March 2018
    Revised Locality Profile
    The locality profile on Northamptonshire Analysis has been tweaked. The profile provides an overview of an individual geographical area showing information about population, housing, economy, educational achievement and a few other bits and bobs. The profile is available for the following geographies : County, District, NCC Electoral Division and Lower Super Output Area (LSOA).

    You can find the profile in the Profile tab within the Population and Census theme or by clicking here.
  • 19 March 2018
    Population Growth Spreadsheet
    Given the current commentary about Northamptonshire's population growth compared to other authorities, I thought I would upload
    this spreadsheet which looks at the growth in the population from the last four Census years up to 2016 (the latest ONS Mid-Year Estimates available). This gives us population growth periods of 35, 25, 15 and 5 years. The spreadsheet looks at the growth of total population and the growth of the population of older persons and compares and ranks Northamptonshire's % grwoth against other authorities across England.   Please note this spreadsheet uses the original 2016 MYEs as it was created before the revised release (due later in March 2018).

    Key points :
    ....   In terms of percentage growth in total population, Northamptonshire has remained in the top 3 English Counties across all the growth periods of 35, 25, 15 and 5 years, mainly swapping places with Cambridgeshire and Lincolnshire. With growth of 5.9% , Northamptonshire gained the top spot for % growth over the five years between the 2011 Census and the 2016 Mid Year Estimates just ahead of Buckinghamshire (5.8%) and Hertfordshire (5.4%) both of which have moved up the rankings in this latest growth period.
    ....   Growth in Corby of 11.3% in total population over the last five years, ranks the borough 7th for % growth in total population out of 326 borough, district and unitary (BDU) authorities.
    ....   Northamptonshire is not high in the rankings of English Counties in terms of percentage growth of those aged 75 and over and those aged 85 and over.
    ....   Nevertheless, a higher than average proportion of those currently in the 65-69 year age band has recently pushed Northamptonshire's growth for those aged 65 and over to the top of the English County rankings. The county's growth over the last five years in this age group is 21.3% ... the next highest growth being in Cambridgeshire (18.3%) and Leicestershire (18.2%). Northamptonshire's growth is driven by high recent percentage growth of those aged 65 and over in South Northamptonshire, East Northamptonshire and Daventry (all in the top 5 for 5 year % growth amongst the 326 BDU authorities).
    ....   Current higher than English County proportions of those aged 45-49 and 50-54 in South Northamptonshire and Daventry may again impact upon the relative growth of persons aged 65 and above in those specific areas and in the county as a whole in fifteen to twenty years' time (assuming people stay in their current locations beyond retirement).

    If you need to find the spreadsheet again, it can be found in the Resources section of the Population and Census theme under the sub-theme of Population Age Gender.
  • 22 February 2018
    Migration (NINos) Update
    In the year to end December 2017, 12062 overseas nationals living in Northamptonshire were allocated National Insurance Numbers. Following a slump in numbers over the last quarter, this is the lowest quarterly (rolling 12 month) figure since March 2015 and a decrease over the last year of 11.2% since the peak number of allocations logged for the year to end December 2016. However in comparison, over the last year the national decrease has been 18.1% as part of a steady slide in numbers from a national peak much earlier for the year to end of June 2015.

    The Northamptonshire decrease since the December 2016 peak is driven by a decrease in the numbers of allocations to applicants from the EU8 Accession States of 30.9% (similar to the national average decrease), alongside a 20.5% decrease in applicants from the EU15 states (also similar to the national average). The difference in Northamptonshire has been the continuing arrival of persons from the EU2 states of Bulgaria and Romania up to a peak in September 2017 compared to a national peak in these EU2 nationals logged slightly earlier at the end of December 2016. Over the last year (Dec 17 compared to Dec 16) the county's decrease in EU2 NINo allocations has only been 3.1% compared to a national decrease of 17.6%. The next set of figures due in May 2018 will be of particular interest to confirm whether the recent decrease in EU2 allocations in Northamptonshire is the beginning of a trend .... or not!

    At a District level, Corby and Northampton follow the 'peak last quarter' pattern, while the total number of NINo allocations in Wellingborough have been decreasing since December 2016.

    Four MSOAs in the county continue to record NINo allocations of more than 500 in the preceding 12 months. Three of these are in central Northampton : N023 Semilong & Town Centre West; N023 The Mounts and N025 Town Centre South towards Hospitial/Well.Road. The fourth MSOA is in Corby : C006 Kingswood.

    This data can be found in the National Insurance Number Allocations to Adult Overseas Nationals dataview.
  • 20 February 2018
    Labour Productivity Update
    The latest local statistics covering labour productivity for Northamptonshire and our basked of Economic Comparators can now be found in spreadsheet format on Northamptonshire Analysis by clicking here.

    Labour productivity is a key driver of long term economic growth and higher living standards.

    The ONS indicators look at Gross Value Added (GVA) Per Hour Worked and GVA Per Job Filled both in terms of monetary value and as a comparative index based on UK productivity.   According to the ONS, Gross Value Added is a productivity metric which measures the value of output less the value of intermediate consumption (input in the production process). They recommend concentrating on GVA Per Hour Worked as it is not affected by local working patterns as is the case for GVA Per Job Filled (so I am sticking with that recommendation!).

    In this dataset the Northamptonshire data is split between the two NUTS3 EU economic geographies of West Northamptonshire (covering the boroughs/districts of Daventry, Northampton and South Northamptonshire) and North Northamptonshire (covering the boroughs/districts of Corby, East Northamptonshire, Kettering and Wellingborough).

    In 2016 West Northamptonshire showed a GVA per hour worked (smoothed) value of £27.7 while the area of North Northamptonshire logged £26.5. This ranked the two areas of the county in 13th and 15th places (of 16) amongst our basked of economic comparators. Across England as a whole these levels of productivity ranked the two parts of Northamptonshire in 99th place (8th decile) and 120th place (10th, worst decile) amongst the 132 NUTS.3 geographies. Not the best of news.

    Looking at the long term growth over 12 years from 2004 to 2016, it is clear that West Northamptonshire started at a low point but over this period has registered growth in productivity of a similar rate to surrounding areas. On the other hand North Northamptonshire started the timeseries in 2004 with better productivity than West Northamptonshire but, like Luton and Bedford, stalled heavily during the 'credit crunch', then fell behind West Northamptonshire in 2011 and has not really recovered any significant growth in productivity since. It is for this reason that North Northamptonshire performs in the bottom 10 NUTS.3 geographies when considering growth over the last six years but in the 8th decile for growth over the full twelve years.

    A recent ONS Research Article explains that some industries naturally produce higher levels of productivity than others, but across the UK since the 'credit crunch' there has been a shift in employment to the less productive sectors. Additionally, some industries have decreased in productivity more than others, manufacturing being a case in point. It may be this double wammy in Northamptonshire's low wage, low skills economy which is impacting upon the productivity slowdown in the NUTS.3 North Northamptonshire area.

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